smalllighthouse.jpg

 



Electing more moderates would boost state's economic outlook

There are ways to find out where legislative candidates stand on policies that favor growth.

 

We had a better time last week in global financial markets. The week was capped by an extraordinary op-ed piece in The New York Times on Friday by Warren Buffett encouraging us all to by U.S. stocks.

Taking a line that could have come from Franklin D. Roosevelt, he noted that a simple rule dictated his buying: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful."

Given the regard with which many of us ordinary Americans hold the Sage of Omaha, I predict that we have turned the corner on the stock market.

Lest you get too exuberant at this assertion, take a look at Friday's companion op-ed from Paul Krugman.

The recent Nobel Prize winner in economics points out that while we may get through the financial crisis, the country is headed for a significant economic recession.

Krugman's forecast has unemployment, now at 6 percent, going over 8 percent, making it potentially the worst recession in the last 25 years.

What does this mean for us in Maine? We will not be immune from a national and global downturn. It has often been pointed out that we do not have as far to fall because our economy has lagged the rest of the country.

Nonetheless, we will face higher unemployment and a decline in economic growth.

Whereas the state has recently been running a "chronic deficit" in the $200 million range, Gov. Baldacci is already forecasting a deficit of at least $500 million for the next biennium.

It will probably be worse.

By law, the state must come up with a balanced budget. The magnitude of the likely deficit means the usual sleight-of-hand measures that the Legislature and governor have used to balance the budget in the past few bienniums will likely not work this time around.

Moreover, we will have a new Legislature in January and a governor who, being termed out in 2010, will move quickly to lame-duck status.

All of this suggests that the upcoming election for the state Legislature takes on particular significance. We cannot afford to return the "same old gang" to Augusta. The stakes are too high.

The Maine Legislature has been dominated over the last several sessions by Democrats.

This wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, except that many of these Democrats, as I have pointed out in this column before, are much to the left of the mainstream in this state.

One of the most significant problems in Augusta is that there are so few members of either party who could be called moderates.

This year, we need to elect more moderates – particularly as these legislators will have to make difficult choices on spending reductions or end up raising taxes. In a recession, increasing taxes will simply make things worse.

It is often difficult to identify a moderate, as many candidates make this claim. Here are a few tests to use.

1. Does the candidate support the key recommendations of the Brookings Report? That document provides an excellent plan to grow the state's economy, available online at www.growsmartmaine.org.

Many of its key provisions have been diluted or not enacted. In particular, Brookings has argued for significant streamlining of state government – an approach legislative leaders have consistently side-stepped.

2. Is the candidate willing to discuss reductions in the two areas of significant state spending – Medicaid and K-12 education?

One litmus test here is the candidate's position on school consolidation, a common-sense way to gain both efficiencies and better educational programming. If the candidate opposes consolidation, whatever his or her rationale, I would not vote for them, period.

3. Does the candidate have either a very low or very high rating from the Maine Economic Research Institute?

MERI (www.me-ri.org) is a business-sponsored group that rates legislators on a series of pro-business (and sometimes pro-economy) issues on a 1-to-100 scale.

A very low score indicates little support for business issues, while very high scores indicate full business support. Moderates typically score in the 30 to 70 range on MERI.

A good way to start researching your candidates is to simply Google them. Most have Web sites with their backgrounds and positions on some of the key issues. Follow up with a phone call.

Then you will be prepared to vote on Nov. 4.